AdaptRisk: Climate Adaptation of infrastructure systems

Infrastructure, such as for example the flood protection measures, typically has life time of decades, if not centuries. Climate projections, rainfall statistics etc. on the other hand are constantly changing as they are subject to considerable uncertainty. Correspondingly, it may be sensible to prefer adaptive infrastructure in the decision making process as the requirements are likely to change as new evidence arises.

AdaptRisk is a collaborative project of the ERA Group and the Chair of Hydrology at TUM. It is the aim of this project to develop a methodological framework of decision making under uncertainty that allows taking into account the adaptability of the infrastructure. In contrast to previous projects, the analysis is performed fully quantitatively, based on rigorous mathematical modeling of the uncertainties and Bayesian decision analysis for assessing the optimality of risk mitigation strategies. In particular, we are looking at uncertainty introduced by climate change and its implication for planning of flood protection measures. The Chair of Hydrology focuses on the hydrological modelling of the flood protection measures, on the required model complexity and categorization of the flood protection measures.

While many of the aspects of our work lie in basic research, we strive to make our findings applicable. We are cooperating with the Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt and other partners on the implementation of the framework to real case studies. Our focus lies on the city of Rosenheim and Kolbermoor, which are located at the outlet of the Mangfall River into the Inn River.