The reliability of engineering systems is a function of time. Nevertheless, in structural reliability analysis and rare event simulation only a small fraction of the research focuses on solving time-variant problems. In this workshop, 60+ researchers and practitioners gathered to summarize the current state of the art and discuss the directions that future research can take. Contributions by leading researchers in the field discussed both computational methods to facilitate time-variant reliability analysis of complex systems and stochastic models as well as codified approaches that are necessary to bring these methods into practice. Additional important aspects, such as the inclusion of data into the reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis were also addressed. There was a consensus on the relevance of the topic and the need for additional research and development. However, participants also agreed on the challenges we face in bringing these methods to practice. Many ideas were discussed on how to foster such dissemination, including education, software, and the use of simulation and visualization tools to better communicate probabilistic modeling and computation and in this way increase trust in our methods and results.

Slides from all presentations can be downloaded in the following:

1. Time-variant reliability using time-dependent surrogate models , by Bruno Sudret

2. Time-variant global reliability of concrete structures under multihazards, by Jie Li & Jianbing Chen

3. Simulation methods for analysis and design in stochastic linear dynamics, by Marcos Valdebenito

4. Bayesian techniques for updating reliability using data, by Xinyu Jia & Costas Papadimitriou

5. Time-dependent reliability analysis with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, by Michael Beer

6. The ergodicity assumption in performance-based engineering, by Andre Beck

7. Time-variant reliability analysis by FORM and SORM, by Armen Der Kiureghian

8. Sensitivity measures for time-variant reliability analysis, by Iason Papaioannou

9. Non-stationary Structural Reliability Analysis in the Changing Climate, by Mahesh Pandey

10. Notes on combined loads from wind and snow, by Miroslav Sykora

11. Time-dependent reliability of highway bridges: the sense and nonsense of standardised probabilistic influence factors, by Rafael Steenbergen

12. Codification and load combination factors, by Jochen  Köhler & John Sorensen.

Slides from the “Tutorial on time-variant reliability analysis” by Dr. Oindrila Kanjilal, which was held prior to the workshop, are also available for download here: Tutorial on time-variant reliability analysis

We thank all the speakers and participants for sharing their expertise and views! This discussion and research will continue… 

We also thank the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion who financially supported this event through project M-0737.

The organizers,

Daniel Straub, Jianbing Chen, Iason Papaioannou, Yongbo Peng, Oindrila Kanjilal and Kai Cheng